据油价网2023年8月8日报道，周二，加拿大投资管理公司Ninepoint Partners合伙人兼高级投资组合经理埃里克·纳托尔在接受BNN彭博电视记者采访时表示，到今年年底，全球原油库存将降到8年来的最低点。

尽管对亚洲原油需求不稳的持续担忧和美国高利率的可怕威胁周期性地拖累油价，但近期原油价格的反弹相当强劲。纳托尔解释说：“归根结底，我们对原油市场健康状况的衡量可以归结为全球原油库存。”

根据Kpler跟踪数据，“到8月8日上午的实时数据：全球原油库存处于8个月以来的低点。我们预计，由于需求依然强劲，从现在到年底，全球原油库存将跌至8年来最低点。”纳托尔说。纳托尔补充说，需求能够进行实时测量。

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纳托尔还提到了上周美国历史上最大的原油库存减少。

纳托尔说，“从现在到年底，油价有强大的基本面支撑——考虑到目前的库存水平，我们认为油价将在每桶80美元左右——我们认为，随着时间的推移，油价应该会走强”。

在谈到对经济衰退的担忧时，纳托尔指出，历史上只有两次原油需求出现下滑，一次是在疫情期间，另一次是在金融危机期间。其他所有的经济衰退都只是原油需求增长放缓，而不是原油需求本身下降。

8月8日下午早些时候，原油价格下跌，美国东部时间当天中午WTI价格为每桶81.28美元，当日每桶下跌0.66美元。当天布伦特原油基准价格下跌0.65美元，至每桶84.69美元。

国际能源署6月份发布的中期报告预测，由于高油价和供应安全问题促使世界各国加快能源转型进程，未来几年全球原油需求增长将放缓至几乎停滞。

李峻 译自 油价网

原文如下：

Crude Inventories To Sink To 8-Year Low This Year: Nuttall

Inventories of crude oil will reach an 8-year low by the end of this year, Eric Nuttal, partner and Senior Portfolio Manager at Ninepoint Partners, told BNN Bloomberg TV on Tuesday.

While persistent fear of Asian stuttering crude oil demand and the boogeyman of high interest rates are periodically dragging down oil prices, the recent price rally in crude oil has been fairly substantial. “When you boil it all down, our measurement of the health of the oil market comes down to oil inventories—globally,” Nuttall explained.

Using Kpler tracking data, “real time data as of this morning: global oil inventories are at an 8-month low. We expect between now and year end they will fall to an 8-year low due to strong demand still,” says Nuttal, who added that demand can be measured in real time.

Nuttal also referenced last weeks’ biggest crude oil inventory draw in the history of the United States.

“When we look between now and year end, there’s a strong fundamental support—we think at about $80 given where inventories are now—and we think we should strengthen as we go throughout the year.”

When speaking about recession fears, Nuttal pointed out that only twice in history has oil demand faltered—during Covid and during the Great Financial Crisis. All other recessions merely saw a slowdown in oil demand growth, not a dip in oil demand itself.

Crude oil prices were trading down on Tuesday in the early afternoon, with WTI at $81.28 at noon ET, down $0.66 per barrel on the day. The Brent crude oil benchmark was trading down $0.65 on the day at $84.69 per barrel.

The IEA’s medium-term report released in June predicts that world oil demand is set to slow almost to a halt in the coming years on high prices and supply security issues push the world to fast-track their energy transition efforts.

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